Testing the Theory of First Sight Using a Retroactive Priming Task:
Two Experiments
Deborah Patton1, Chris Roe1, Matthew Hopkins1, Emily Blake1, & David Vernon2
1University of Northampton, Northampton, UK
2Canterbury Christchurch University, Canterbury, UK
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Introduction
Daryl Bem’s (2011) implicit psi protocols have proven relatively successful in generating evidence of precognition and Bem et al.’s (2016) meta-analysis of 90 studies suggests this is a promising line of enquiry. This work was proof-oriented, with only limited attempts to test hypotheses derived from theory. This project is intended to remedy that by testing predictions made by James Carpenter’s First Sight theory in an effort to encourage other researchers to adopt a more theory-driven approach to experimental design.
Carpenter (2004, 2005) makes a number of explicit predictions regarding personal and situational factors that will affect psi performance, both in magnitude and direction of effect. Some of these have been tested using an implicit psi task, with encouraging results (Carpenter et al., 2021).
In identifying an appropriate experimental test, we note that Bem et al. (2016) found that “fast thinking” tasks (after Kahneman, 2011) rely to a greater extent on implicit processes, were more successful than tasks reliant on slower explicit processes, which makes it an ideal methodology to test Carpenter’s First Sight model, in which psi processes are argued to exist at the preconscious level. Among Bem’s experiments, he includes a priming task in which the speed with which people are able to identify whether a presented image is positive or negative is affected by the valence of a prime (a positive or negative word presented briefly before the image): where the word is congruent with the image, reaction times are faster and where incongruent they are slower. Bem adapted the methodology to create a precognition task by presenting the prime after participants have responded to the exposed image.
We intend to complete a series of experiments that test First Sight Theory using implicit psi tasks, building on Carpenter et al. (2021).
Experiment 1 (n = 80) focuses on individual differences factors predicted to affect sensitivity to psi-mediated information, including openness to fantasy, openness to feelings, tolerance for merger, belief that psi is possible under the conditions of the experiment, creative occupation, anxiety, and need for structure.
Experiment 2 (n = 80) considers the salience of stimulus type (human vs. non-human) and varies the prime delay, since Carpenter predicts that the effectiveness of precognition responses will drop off sharply as the time between response period and target event increases, in the same way that effectiveness of subliminal primes tends to drop off logarithmically over time, suggesting both have a short temporal reach.
Confirmatory hypotheses for experiments 1 and 2:
H1: The average RTs for congruent trials of the conventional priming task will be faster than those for incongruent trials.
H2: The average RTs for congruent trials of the retroactive priming task will be faster than those for incongruent trials.
Exploratory hypotheses for experiment 1 (see preregistration for details):
A positive relationship between retroactive priming performance and Openness to Fantasy (H3), Openness to Feelings (H4), Openness to Aesthetics (H5), Tolerance for Merger (H6), belief that ESP is possible within the constraints of the experiment (H7), and Creative Occupation (H8). Negative relationships are predicted between retroactive priming performance and Need for Structure (H9), Anxiety (H10), and Vulnerability (H11).
Exploratory hypotheses for experiment 2 (see preregistration for details):
Retroactive priming performance will be better for trials that involve stimuli which feature people than for trials that involve stimuli which do not feature people (H12), and there will be differences in retroactive priming performance across the three exposure conditions that delay exposure to the prime by 0ms, 750ms, and 1500ms (H13)
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I am a GTA/RA in Psychology at UON and an active researcher in parapsychology, with a focus on psi processes, particularly precognition as an everyday preconscious cognitive process. Previous research involvement includes morphic resonance. My main aim is to move forward our scientific understanding of parapsychological phenomena and share that understanding widely.
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The Parapsychological Association is an international professional organization of scientists and scholars engaged in the study of psi (or ‘psychic’) experiences, such as telepathy, clairvoyance, psychokinesis, psychic healing, and precognition. The primary objective of the PA is to achieve a scientific understanding of these experiences.
Follow the PA: https://linktr.ee/parapsychologicalassociation
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Published on October 18, 2026
